PAKISTAN READER

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PML-Q backs Bilawal Bhutto in NA-127 after talks with PML-N collapses

In Brief
PAKISTAN ELECTIONS 2024
PR Exclusive Update #49
PML-Q backs Bilawal Bhutto in NA-127 after talks with PML-N collapses
On 19 January, Dawn reported that PML-Q, led by Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, publicly backed PPP’s Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari in the NA-127 Lahore constituency after failed seat adjustment talks with PML-N. PML-Q’s chief organizer and former Punjab Governor Chaudhry Muhammad Sarwar, announced the party’s support, emphasizing Bilawal as the “future of the country.” Sarwar urged PTI to aid Bilawal for diplomatic advantage against PML-N. He cited Bilawal’s candidacy as beneficial for strengthening the federation. PML-Q also withdrew candidates in favour of the Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party in NA-117 and two Punjab Assembly seats. Sarwar’s support is rooted in a forty year relationship with the Bhutto family and praising Bilawal’s past performance as foreign minister. (Amjad Mahmood, “Amjad Mahmood, “‘Q’ to support Bilawal from Lahore’s NA-127 after PML-N snub,” Dawn, 19 January 2024)
 
PML-N accuses PTI of using religion in politics
On 19 January, Dawn reported that the Pakistan Muslim League (N) PML-N’s social media team released a video of a young man dressed as a cleric who condemns the use of religion in politics. The comments in the footage, however,  seemed contradictory and did the opposite. The video further shows Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) leader Imran Khan’s stumbling during an oath-taking speech and a court case regarding his Nikah. The video further draws back accusations of previous elections where PML-N tampered with the oath for parliamentarians. In this regard, PML-N leaders were publicly criticized. Due to this, on the next level, a senior leader of PML, Ahsan Iqbal was shot and injured. PTI used this to gain a grip over the votes by making use of PML-N’s accusations. Given the current political status, PML-N’s accusation of Imran Khan is not new. However, PML-N accuses the PTI leader based on his constant use of religion in politics. According to Dawn, “This is not the last election in which religion is used, and neither will any party prove impervious to this temptation. And with the addition of blasphemy as an election issue, the use of religion has just become more lethal.” (Arifa Noor, “The unabated misuse of religion in politics,” Dawn, 19 January 2024)
 
A level playing field is essential, says an opinion in Dawn
On 19 January, an opinion in Dawn by Faisal Siddiqi titled, “Sham elections” states that in the ‘cipher case,’ Imran Khan and Shah Mahmood Qureshi's bail petition, Judge Athar Minallah somewhat presciently noted in an order dated 22 December 2023 that, “Discrimination or intimidation on the basis of political opinions are alien to the concept of genuine elections and even such a perception would be sufficient to relegate it to the status of sham elections.” Similarly, Siddiqi pointed out that in the ‘PTI level playing field case,’ Justice Mansoor Ali Shah in a judgment on PTI’s accusations against ECP stated, “A level playing field is essential for healthy competition, ensuring that elections are a true reflection of the people’s choice, rather than the result of manipulation or coercion.” Siddiqui, in his opinion piece, added that in the ‘Benazir Bhutto symbols case’ of 1989, a 12-member bench of the Supreme Court stated that symbols are the essence of elections and that political parties have a fundamental right under Article 17 of the Constitution because they are essential to the right of voters in South Asian societies with lower levels of education to identify and select their public representatives. Probing ahead, Siddiqui stated, “In the presence of such a fundamental right and judicial precedents, it fails to consider whether, on the basis of major or minor irregularities in intra-party elections, the election party symbol can be denied so close to national elections, in effect banning the party from participating in them.” (Faisal Siddiqi, “Sham elections”, Dawn, 19 January 2024)
 
Nawaz kickstarts PML-N’s election campaign in a speech from Hafizabad
On 18 January, PML-N party leader Nawaz Sharif addressed the public in Hafizabad as part of the election campaign. In his address, he stated that he would restore the economy and end unemployment. Nawaz further stated, “If I was not removed from power, there would not have been a single problem that is plaguing the country today. The dollar would have been at Rs100, roti would cost Rs 4, and Pakistan would have earned a reputable position in the world.” Nawaz asserted that he was ousted three times during his tenure, he further added that he would have brought a green passport and a prosperous country if he had not been ousted from power. He added, “I assure you that there will be no difference between Lahore and Hafizabad if the PML-N is voted into power.” (Waseem Ashraf Butt, “PML-N poll campaign picks up steam with Nawaz’s entry.” Dawn, 19 January 2024)
 
PPP chairman claims to form a new government with the help of independents
On 18 January, Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) chairman Bilawal Bhutto stated that his party would form a new government without a coalition and that Nawaz would have to replace the opposition party. Bhutto stated, “We are keeping an eye on the independent candidates, and all working has been done in this regard.” He said his father Asif Ali Zardari would become more involved after the election.  He further added, “Nawaz Sharif thinks that he will come to government by making an impression; but this will not happen, the victory will be for the people, and victory will be for the PPP.” Bhutto also claimed that he will eradicate poverty and unemployment from the country. (Asim Yasin and Imtiaz Hussain, “PPP, independents to make govt: Bilawal”, The News International, 19 January 2024)

PML-N promises “the same old, same old,” says an editorial in The News International
On 19 January, an editorial in The News International titled “What is the PML-N promising?” shed some light on what are some of the issue areas that the PML-N is campaigning around and what it intends to do if it comes to power. After endless speculations about his absence, PML-N chief Mian Nawaz Sharif made a public appearance in an election rally on 18 January Hafizabad. He promised that if he is elected as the premier for the fourth time, his goal will be “to put Pakistan back on its feet.” This, however, was followed up with no plan or roadmap. The editorial argues that judging by Sharif’s rally speech, the PML-N is offering the people of Pakistan “the same old, same old”- “the same old rhetoric of development,” what life would have been for the Pakistanis if he had been able to complete his five year tenure after coming to power in 2013 and “a bit of a lament over how the PTI government ruined things.” The editorial states that PML-N can be given credit for better governance as compared to other parties but the “economic disaster” that followed the PDM coalition government should not be forgotten. The editorial concludes by stating that using good old strategies has been successful for most parties and can be for the PML-N but also asserting that a manifesto would have demonstrated the party’s seriousness about the elections and its promises. (“What is the PML-N promising?,” The News International, 19 January 2024)
 
ECONOMY
Will the economic gains persist, wonders an editorial in Dawn
On 19 January, an editorial in Dawn titled “Nothing to celebrate,” revealed that the State Bank has reported positive economic indicators for the first half of FY24, with Pakistan achieving a current account surplus of USD 397 million for the second consecutive month, reducing the six-month deficit to USD 831 million from USD 3.6 billion. FDI inflows rose by 35 per cent to USD 863 million. However, concerns have arisen regarding the sustainability of these gains, attributed to temporary measures limiting imports. The economy remains troubled, marked by a contraction in the previous fiscal year, stagnant exports, and a lack of investor confidence. It further emphasized the need for long-term solutions, citing ongoing challenges such as poverty, food insecurity, and inadequate public services amid a growing population. (“Nothing to celebrate,” Dawn, 19 January 2024)
 
IMF’s post-elections dilemma on Pakistan’s debt 
On 19 January, Dawn reported that the former State Bank governor Reza Baqir highlighted the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) dilemma in the post-February elections period in Pakistan. The USD 3 billion IMF loan which had secured the nation against a “sovereign debt default” is set to expire this spring. Baqir noted that the IMF’s challenge would be assessing Pakistan’s debt sustainability. Earlier the IMF had deemed Pakistan’s debt sustainable with notable risks. The investors would await its stance to see whether it retains its stance or proposes debt restructuring.  Pakistan’s public external debt stood at nearly USD 100 billion by September 2023 with China being the biggest creditor. (“IMF debt dilemma looms after polls, says ex-SBP chief,” Dawn, 19 January 2024)

Pakistan and Dubai sign USD 3 billion agreements in Davos
On 18 January, Pakistan and Dubai inked two agreements totaling over USD 3 billion during the World Economic Forum in Davos. The agreements were signed by Federal Minister for Communication, Railways and Maritime Affairs Shahid Ashraf Tarar and Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem respectively and Chairman of Ports, Customs and Free Zone Corporation (PCFC), government of Dubai. The focus was on cooperation in railways, economic zones, and infrastructure projects. Key initiatives include the establishment of a dedicated freight corridor from Karachi to the Arabian Sea aimed at reducing traffic congestion and logistic costs and an economic zone near Karachi. Caretaker Prime Minister Anwaarul Haq Kakar welcomed the UAE-based multinational logistics company, DP World’s interest in expanding business in Pakistan, emphasizing the transformative potential of increased cooperation between the two countries. The agreements will cover the development of “a dedicated freight corridor, multi-model logistics park, and freight terminals.”(Syed Irfan Raza, “Pakistan, Dubai ink $3 billion pacts at Davos,” Dawn, 19 January 2024)

Proposed tax reforms in Pakistan aim to balance revenue mobilization and economic stability
On 19 January, an opinion in The News International discussed the ongoing debate on the size of government, emphasizing the resurgence of the “big government” concept amid the Triple C crisis. The article focuses on Pakistan’s need to increase revenues without resorting to additional borrowing, suggesting innovative solutions like using data analytics and AI to “ identify potential new taxpayers, strengthen tax administration, and enhance compliance.”The Ministry of Finance’s proposal for reforms in the Federal Board of Revenue is deemed commendable, aiming to enhance transparency, curb smuggling, and shift towards a data-led tax system. The author emphasized the importance of effective implementation and highlighted the proposed autonomy and oversight boards as crucial steps in ensuring a transparent and accountable tax administration. (Dr Abid Qaiyum Suleri, “What should the tax policy be in 2024?,” The News International, 19 January 2024)

WORLDVIEW
Western allies in the Middle East are changing course, asserts an editorial in The Express Tribune 
On 19 January, an editorial in The Express Tribune titled “Gaza and the winds of change,” written by Aneela Shahzad has looked into the changes and shifts taking place in the political landscape of alliances in the Middle East. She has argued that the Gulf countries on the eastern coast of the Arabian Peninsula which were formed due to British interventions and maintained a “symbiotic relationship” with the West until recently have also changed their stance. She cites the recent example of how amongst the traditional allies of the US, it was just Bahrain that agreed to be a part of Operation Guardian Star. She argues that the erosion in this symbiotic relationship, especially with Saudi Arabia, started with the US pulling out of the Syrian War. Subsequently, she argues that “the Saudis have trodden an inverse route, that of reconciliation with the Shia world.” The scene has also shifted with countries like Iran and China making inroads in the region which can be seen in the increase in bilateral trade, the recent expansion of BRICS, the Saudi-Iran rapprochement brokered by the Chinese, Putin’s “lightening tour to the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Iran,” and their constant display of solidarity with the Palestinians in the wake of the current war. Even South Africa which has been a Western ally has filed a case against Israel at the ICJ. She further states “It seems like a complex interaction between BRICS and the Iran-led Axis of Resistance for Gaza has been brewing. It seems like while the US-Israel axis is losing allies one by one (like Italy, Spain and France refused to participate in Operation Prosperity Guardian), the Axis of Resistance has been gathering friends from the expanding the BRICS club.”( Aneela Shahzad, “Gaza and the winds of change,” The Express Tribune, 19 January 2024)
 
No “functional democracy” in South Asia, asserts an editorial in The Express Tribune
On 19 January, an editorial in The Express Tribune titled “Political permutations in South Asia,”  written by Syed Mohammad Ali has argued that none of the major South Asian countries have “yet managed to become a functional democracy” and “much of the region is still plagued by authoritarian rule.” He cites examples from different countries to substantiate this. For example, under Sheikh Hasina’s rule, Bangladesh has turned into a “one-party state.” In the case of Pakistan, he has argued that the country has witnessed decades of military rule and been plagued by intervention by the establishment which is certain to play out even in the forthcoming elections. The result is that not one prime minister has been able to complete his/her tenure in the country. He further highlights the growing problem of Hindu nationalism in India and the consequent “tyranny of the majority.” In the case of Sri Lanka, he has highlighted the problem of corruption and misgovernance and the resultant economic crisis in the country leading to massive protests. He also refers to the ousting of the Rajapaksa in 2015 and their second ouster in 2022. He concludes by stating that while the nature and form of oppression in these countries vary, the main problem is “their inability to develop sustainable governance models which can represent the will and safeguard the interests of their diverse populace.” (Syed Mohammad Ali, ““Political permutations in South Asia,”  The Express Tribune, 19 January 2024)

“Basing one’s views and strategy on personal popularity alone is always tricky. Politics is about more than popularity in the moment. Latest polling in Punjab shows Nawaz Sharif has regained ground over Imran Khan” -Husain Haqqani “Former minister & PTI candidate being dragged and abducted from outside court. What shameful optics from elections in Pakistan.” -Hammad Azhar “Maryam Nawaz Sharif to shortly address a huge jalsa in Khanewal. Her passion for Pakistan is unmatched. She's a leader who listens and connects with the public!” -PMLN

“If artificial intelligence delivers on its promise, it will change the education sector significantly.” - An opinion in Dawn, ‘AI in education’